Market Overview
The crypto market slipped on Friday as investors showed risk aversion ahead of the upcoming U.S. core PCE inflation data. The CoinDesk 20 Index, a broad measure of the market, dropped 3.6% in the last 24 hours, with nearly all major tokens trading lower.
Analysts say the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decisions could be influenced by this report, which is a key inflation gauge.
Fed’s Policy and Market Sentiment
Experts from Bitunix Exchange warned that a hotter-than-expected inflation number could push the Fed toward a “one-and-done” rate cut stance.
For Bitcoin (BTC), traders are watching whether $114,500 can turn into strong support, or if the market retests $107,600 for resilience.
Derivatives Market Positioning
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Open interest (OI) in futures tied to most major tokens has declined, reflecting capital outflows from the market.
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In contrast, Solana (SOL) futures surged, with OI hitting a record 63.84 million contracts, while the token’s price rallied to $217, its highest since February.
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Funding rates for Ethereum (ETH), Tron (TRX), and BNB turned slightly negative, suggesting bearish bets on further price declines. Other tokens held steady near neutral.
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On the CME exchange, Bitcoin futures OI dropped to 135.72K BTC, the lowest since April, while Ethereum OI stayed strong near 2.1 million ETH, showing investor preference for ETH over BTC.
Options and Trading Trends
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On Deribit, Bitcoin options showed a stronger downside bias, with puts trading at a five volatility premium over calls.
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Ethereum options reflected similar patterns, signaling a shift from the earlier bullish trend.
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Block trades on Paradigm included call selling and put rolling strategies in BTC and ETH.
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Market maker Wintermute reported demand for call spreads in December BTC options, hinting at mixed strategies.
Solana’s Revenue Decline vs. DeFi Growth
Despite its strong derivatives activity, Solana (SOL) saw a 44% decline in application revenue in Q2, dropping to $576.4M from $1B in Q1, according to Messari.
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Pump.fun (PUMP) led with $156.9M but still fell 44% as memecoin hype cooled.
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Axiom stood out, surging 641% to $126.6M, proving that protocol-specific growth can defy broader weakness.
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Jupiter (JUP) earned $66.4M (–16%), while Phantom and Photon suffered the biggest losses at –65% and –72%.
DeFi TVL Surge on Solana
While revenue fell, Solana’s DeFi total value locked (TVL) jumped 30% to $8.6B in Q2 and has since crossed $11B, making it the second-largest DeFi network after Ethereum.
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Kamino Finance drove much of this growth, expanding 34% to $2.1B after launching Kamino Lend V2, which quickly attracted $200M in deposits and $80M in loans. Kamino now controls 25% of Solana’s market share.
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Raydium staged a comeback, rising 54% to $1.8B TVL, overtaking Jupiter with a 21% share vs. Jupiter’s 19%.
Trading Activity Weakens
Despite growth in DeFi, average daily spot DEX volume on Solana fell 45% to $2.5B, showing that memecoin-driven trading activity has cooled since last quarter’s record highs.
🔑 Key Takeaways:
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Crypto market down 3.6% ahead of U.S. inflation report.
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SOL futures hit record high OI despite revenue decline.
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Fed policy may shift if inflation comes in hotter than expected.
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Ethereum OI stronger than Bitcoin, showing investor tilt.
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Solana DeFi TVL surges past $11B, cementing 2nd spot after Ethereum.
