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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Rises Above $4,150 as US Shutdown Ends and Rate Cut Hopes Grow

In News
November 14, 2025

Gold Extends Gains in Asian Session

The gold price (XAU/USD) continued to rise on Friday, trading near $4,185 during the early Asian session. The precious metal strengthened as investors expect the reopening of the US government to restart the flow of economic data, boosting hopes for future interest rate cuts.


US Shutdown Ends After Historic Delay

The longest government shutdown in US history ended on Thursday after President Donald Trump approved a funding bill.
The House of Representatives passed the bill with a 222–209 vote, supported mainly by Republicans and a few Democrats.

With the government now open, analysts believe upcoming US economic reports—especially those delayed during the shutdown—could show slower job growth. Weak labor data may pressure the US Dollar (USD) and support the rise of gold, which is a USD-denominated asset.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett confirmed that October job numbers will be released, but the report will not include the unemployment rate due to missing household survey data.


Federal Reserve Maintains Cautious Tone

Despite market expectations of rate cuts, several Federal Reserve officials have signaled caution:

  • Susan Collins (Boston Fed President) said interest rates may need to stay unchanged for some time to balance inflation and employment risks.

  • Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) and Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed) also expressed support for holding rates steady.

Their conservative stance could limit gold’s upside momentum.


Rate Cut Expectations Shift

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see a 51% chance of a 0.25% rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting.
This is slightly down from 62.9% just a day earlier, reflecting uncertainty after the shutdown.


Outlook for Gold

With the US government reopening and key economic reports returning, gold may experience more volatility.
A weaker USD, rising rate-cut expectations, and signs of economic slowdown could continue to support XAU/USD in the near term.